Click to return to home

Created by Level X Webdesign

Journeys Gallery Links Tips n'Infos The Challenge About us

Check-List for Pandemics

This is a generic checklist for pandemics partially extracted from Ian Welsh: Economics of a Flu Pandemic .
As a traveller one should always be prepared for situations where one is isolated and where one has no access to food, water and fuel for quite some time.
Beside a pandemic similar situations can also arise by natural disasters, social conflicts, meltdown of the world financial system etc.
The preparations for all of these events are almost identical.

Assumptions

Medical

A pandemic can be large enough to overwhelm the health systems in most countries which get hit.
There are not enough beds, not enough respiratory-masks and most likely not enough anti-virals in most countries. There certainly won't be enough trained medical personnel.

Travel

All non essential travel will be shut down for the duration of the pandemic.
Infected individuals and any individuals who have come into contact with them are instructed to quarantine themselves, or will be forcibly quarantined.

Power, sewage, water, emergency services

The situation will be much like that in wartime.
Government will concentrate on keeping key infrastructure (power, sewage, water, emergency services) operating.

Food distribution

Distribution of most goods through the system will be discontinued. Since people can be asymptomatic and still carry the disease, it will be decided to keep any cross-country travel to a minimum.
Most retail outlets will close, either voluntarily or by government fiat.
Food will be trucked either into distribution centers or into supermarkets which agree to stay open and will be rationed out exactly as in wartime.

Preparations for a pandemic

Money / Tradable goods

The banking system will likely be shut down during the crisis and bank machines (ATMs) will likely not be restocked (even if they do not go down due to loss of system personnel). Due to this reason you should have a stock of money at home to allow you to buy whatever you need and what is available.
In addition you want to have tradable goods available for the black market.
Money will be a poor second to having goods people want.
In this regard stocking up on some medical items such as surgical masks and OTC medicines will be especially wise.
You will need something you can trade what people want.

Personal finances

In terms of personal finances, other than investing your money in survival goods like food, water, candles, kerosene lamps, stoves etc. (in case of a power out) and taking some money out for use in buying what goods are available, there's little to do.
Make sure you have an up to date written statement of your assets every month, so that if records are lost you can successfully argue with your bank/broker about what situation you were in.

Power

If you can arrange to have independent power generation (generator, solar), you should do so.

Food

You should always have a good supply of emergency provisions and water. Constantly use and restock it. Make your estimate of how much you need and double or triple it.
Others will not have planned ahead and you do not want to find yourself not being able to help friends, family and neighbours.

During a pandemic

Transport / Fuel

The primary tool of public health in any pandemic situation will be quarantine and the primary goal will be slowing or halting the spread of the disease, not just within a given community, but from community to community.
As such both international and domestic trade, including trucking, train and air freight, will take a phenomenal dive.
Nothing that is not a necessity will travel.
For all intents and purposes, the official economy will be driven down to little more than essential services and the shipping of essential goods like food, medicine and goods necessary to maintain essential services.

Because public transit will likely be either shut down or operating on a much-reduced schedule, consider how you're going to travel if you need to.
For urban types, a bicycle is good, for suburban types, make sure you have fuel, because there will be, almost guaranteed, fuel rationing and long queues on bowser stations.
Rural types are advised to store petrol or diesel fuel.

Pay check

Don't expect to be able to get to work and to get a paycheck during this period unless you work in an essential service.
Most companies will either shut down voluntarily, be shut down by government fiat, or will operate with a skeleton staff.
And don't expect to be able to cash your check or get money out of the bank - odds are they'll shut down and even if the ATMs stay up, they likely won't be restocked with money.

Black market / Tradable goods

In situations like this there is always a black market.
There'll be people selling food, water, medicines (a lot of the medicine will be fake) and medical supplies like masks. If you want or need any of these things, you'll either pay though prices or have to have something to barter.
People are discouraged from getting involved in black markets but you may not have a choice and if you don't, then make sure you have something to barter with.

If you have to go out

Wear a surgical face mask!
Avoid cough people.
Wash and disinfect your hands often!

World travelers

Stay out bush and avoid entering communities as long as necessary / possible.
Listen to local and overseas news to know about the affected areas and the severity of the disease as well as to get informed about when and where a vaccination / treatment is available.
If possible contact your embassy and inform them regarding your position, situation and plans. Get their advice.

Security

Criminality and looting in particular are a real threat. Don’t show your assets to avoid getting a target

If you get sick

Don't travel.
Don't send kids to school
Stay home.

After a pandemic

Relatively light casualties (around 1% of the population)

The world will go on.
Everyone will know someone who lost someone, or will have lost someone themselves, but the bottom line is, sad as it is, that it won't make a huge difference.
Demand will drop and thus it won't have a huge effect of employment one way or the other; it'll reduce GDP noticeably, but not disastrously and otherwise it'll business as usual with sadness.

Heavy casualties

With the worst casualties inflicted on public health sector and people between the ages of 20 to 40 the effect will be quite noticeable.
It will put a lot of pressure on increasing retirement ages, decreasing retirement benefits (since programs like social security are paid for by current workers) and will mean that countries will have to consider encouraging more immigration.
There will be a significant demand shock and GDP will take a big enough hit to be noticeable.

 

 

Partially extracted from Ian Welsh: Economics of a Flu Pandemic

No liability for timeliness, integrity and correctness of this document is accepted.
Last updated: Thursday, 10.01.2019 5:19 PM



top - home